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Closing Market Commentary

09/11/2023
Closing Market Commentary

Grains close mixed:

Dec Corn + 2 cents/bu (4.85 3/4)

Nov Soybeans + 6 cents/bu (13.69)

Dec Chi Wheat – 11 1/4 cents/bu (5.84 1/2)

Cdn $ +0.00335 (73.635 cents)

WTI Crude Oil -0.22/barrel (87.29)

This afternoon’s crop conditions report showed 5% of corn harvested (5% LY, and 4% Avg), with corn condition dropping another % point to 52% (53% LY, 59% Avg). Soybeans also dropped a % point to 52% (56% LY, 60% Avg). Corn ratings were expected to drop 1 point, while the trade pegged soybeans dropping by 2 points.

Corn yields are estimated down around 1.6 bushels per acre in tomorrow's September USDA S&D Report, with soybeans seen down around half that amount at 0.7. Corn production is seen down around 100 million bushels with soybeans again down about half of that. Overall ending stocks for 2023/24 are seen down roughly 60 mbu, with soybean carryout estimated down about 40 mbu (but still winding up at just over 200 million bushels).

Weather models remain confident in their rain forecast for the Southern Plains that extend through the next 15 days which benefits a newly planted crop. The report this afternoon showed 7% of the crop is in the ground as of Sunday.

The US river system continues to impede the normal flow of grain. Mississippi River forecasts predict exceptionally low waters through September 24th by which 1/3 of the US crop could be taken in. Drafts continue to be cut and the industry is experiencing more groundings and river closures.

Russia says it will return to the Black Sea grain deal 'the same day' as Moscow's conditions for export of its own grain and fertilizers to the global markets are met.

Export Inspections were unsurprisingly within expectations. This morning, we saw a flash sale confirmed by the USDA for 185,000 tonnes of U.S. soymeal for delivery to the Philippines in 2023/24.

Funds were thought to have been mixed today with corn and beans sellers and wheat a buyer.

Megan McGrail, Grain Merchandiser

Wanstead Farmers Co-operative

519-898-2861

meganm@wansteadfarmerscoop.com

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